Detail millimeter wave radar in China in the past few years

As an industry research and investment industry, the author has been fortunate to collect a lot of pieces in recent years, and I will take advantage of this summer night to spell out a picture of me to show you.

1. Ancient times

It is said that in the 1960s, vehicle radar has begun to be developed in the United States, but it is a 10GHz one and one, which must be built with separated devices, and the availability is not good. At least until the 1990s, those famous giants of Japan and Germany have begun systematic research, and gradually began to get on the car from commercial vehicles. After 2010, shipments of A (Autoliv), B (Bosch), C (Continental) and D (Delphi) have basically reached 10 million. Of course, ABCD's statement is for easy to remember, in fact, Hella, Denso, Fujitsu, TRW, Valeo have a strong strength.

Millimeter wave radar market share by company

Back in China, the earliest wave of people doing millimeter wave radar in China were mostly in the military and military-backed colleges and universities. The universities are Southeast University, Xi 'an University of Electronic Science and Technology, Chengdu University of Electronic Science and Technology, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Most of them are also security radar, ship radar and so on.

An arrow through the cloud, thousands of troops to meet

It can be said that in 2014, Mobileye, which had been silent for 10 years to do research and development, went public with a market value of more than 10 billion dollars, which can be said to have opened the enlightenment movement and the first year of science popularization of ADAS in China. In 2015, Baidu unmanned car was released, Shouting the slogan of "three years of commercial, five years of mass production", which completely detonated people's beautiful imagination of unmanned driving, and various entrepreneurial teams surfaced. Mixed with the various discussions of L2, L3 and L4, the enthusiasm of people and the capital market quickly crossed from ADAS to unmanned driving, completing the shock of unmanned driving from the car circle to the Internet circle, and completing the popularization of the investment circle and the media circle in only a few months. In this way, cameras, millimeter-wave radar, lidar become the focus of discussion.

3. Smart Micro

To a certain extent, Micro Smart is the prototype of many radar products in China. The German company provided the radar's overall solution, which several conventional Tier 1s have bought from it, paying hefty licensing fees. It was later found that there are many "wonderful" parts of the original millimeter wave radar, and the functions of the vehicle radar are more and more. This business model of authorized production, which limits the flexibility of development, is increasingly unable to meet new market demands. At the same time, the cost reduction under this business model is also a big challenge.

4, RF chip diversification, Ti is expected to become a new winner

A few years earlier, an article wrote that 77G chips were embargoed, seriously misleading a large wave of people's views on 77G. Now the giants have long since opened their positions and begun a fierce competition. Infineon, Ti, ST, NXP four have their own characteristics, the sound is very big. Infineon says that I am the father of the industry, and the Infineon Bosch alliance has shipped more than 20 million pieces. Ti said, I CMOS process, high integration, cost-effective, willing to support you these little brothers.

From the author's observation, Infineon is limited by the Infineon Bosch alliance, domestic promotion is limited, and NXP chips are also used less due to high prices. Several major startups have adopted Ti's solution. From the perspective of product strength, the integrated program reduces the difficulty of development and greatly reduces the cost. On the other hand, Ti's active support and lobbying also make its supporters. The cost of the chip is basically in the range of 10-20 US dollars, and the higher cost performance may help Ti become a new winner.

Here, I would like to mention Xiamen Yi Travel. Localized chips, coupled with the automotive industry, starting is always particularly not easy, but product power is the ultimate measure, at present, the momentum is good. Dr. Yang Shoujun of Xiamen Yi Travel began the research and development of millimeter wave radar front-end radio frequency chip (MMIC) after returning from automotive chip giant Infineon in 2011. Outstanding research and development ability, soon out of the product. In 2015, the domestic radar providers, solution providers have not yet started the era, only do chip market promotion is very difficult, Xiamen Yi line has made various attempts, constantly send samples, patiently cultivate customers. At present, my feeling is that the transformation goal of the company can be likened to Smart Micro, making the most difficult part of the radar into a solution, better developing support, lowering the technical threshold, and promoting the faster landing of products. The author believes that this idea of downstream and program integration is also the best choice for RF chip companies to survive and break through under the current status of the millimeter-wave radar industry.

5, there are no less than 20 entrepreneurial enterprises, and there will be a wave of centralized financing in the near future

There is no doubt that the entire industry of millimeter-wave radar, in the past three years, and at least the next two years, will be in the cultivation period of the industry, and companies will be in the situation of burning money to do research and development and patiently receiving car factory projects. The current pattern is that there are no less than 30 radar departments of entrepreneurial enterprises and mature enterprises, and those who cannot get financing will face a serious survival crisis. In the climax of millimeter-wave radar financing in 2015-2016, some of the money that was raised was basically spent. Therefore, the author judges that the financing tide of ADAS start-ups will be concentrated in the near future.

Companies that are now doing millimeter wave radar can basically be divided into two categories: one is the newly formed product department of the original automobile supply chain enterprise, and the other is the entrepreneurial team.

Let's start with the newly formed product sector of the automotive supply chain enterprises: China's automotive electronics industry, I think it can also be divided into the south and the north. The northern group can be called the traditional car group, which mainly focuses on the Yangtze River Delta and does more security, communication and control. The southern school can be called the electronic school, or directly called the car machine school, mainly in the Pearl River Delta, is the past decade to do navigation and audio and video entertainment system grew up, in recent years are also concentrated on the market.

The traditional Tier1 looks at the pressure of annual cost reduction, and wants to push new products and occupy a better position. Millimeter wave is the easiest option for them to see. From the announcement point of view, Desai Siwei, Hua Yu Automobile, Tongzhi electronics are actively layout. Of course, there are many companies that I can not easily disclose, and almost all are actively doing technical reserves. The first idea of these companies is to buy the solution first, in an attempt to build products quickly and take advantage of the opportunity. But from the results, the progress of the product is always less than expected, or the product is facing difficulties in mass production, after all, the veterans of these companies are familiar with automotive electronics, EMC, but the microwave this thing, talents are in the military and communications industry, traditional automotive electronics companies have not played, a start, there are always a few pits. On the other hand, costs are harder to come down. If you do forward research and development, talent is still relatively difficult to reserve, from radio frequency, antenna to signal processing, and then to control strategy, facing a lot of investment and accumulation.

In addition, China's first batch of millimeter wave radar startups were mostly established in 2014-2016, and the team is often a scientific research background, military background, or supplier job-hopping entrepreneurial background. Such as returnees: Senstech, Hangzhou Zhibo. Sent by the Scientific Research Institute: Hang Yi Road, Nanjing Falcon Eye, Suzhou Anzhi, Suzhou Haomi Bo. Industrial transformation: Shenzhen Anzhijie, Shenzhen Chengtai, Hunan Nalei. There are Elaida, Muniu, Leibotek, Shenzhen Zhuo Ying.

There are about 20 millimeter wave radar startups in the country, and no less than 10 have received financing. The characteristics of these enterprises are also very obvious, generally no doctor, are embarrassed to open a shop. The research and development foundation is relatively strong, the execution is good, and the entrepreneurial ideas are often active development and gnawing hard bones. The positioning is mainly focused on the solution provider or directly aimed at the new Tier1. The shortcomings of these companies are also obvious, the first is the lack of money, want to do a good job of millimeter wave radar this thing, do a demo quickly, but to consider the system construction, marketing, on-board adaptation, system design, calibration and stability, process difficulty and production stability, it is more than 50 million level of investment. Want to do Tier1, this is indeed the case, there is no small step of the Internet industry to run fast, only to achieve the system perfect, good enough, in order to knock on the door of the Oems.

List of major millimeter wave radar enterprises in China, organized according to public information

At present, according to the author's observation, the entire industry has in the mass production of goods enterprises mainly Shenzhen Anzhijie and Wuhu Senstech. Anzhijie is mainly in the aftermarket test water, obtained thousands of sets of orders of magnitude BSD, LCA radar shipments. According to the company, it has also obtained 2 domestic Oems and 4 project fixed points. Senstech benefits from Hikang's focused support, according to Hikvision's annual related transaction announcement, in the field of security to obtain more than 30 million revenue.

From: Hikvision 2017 Annual Report

6. Where is the market? How big is the market?

The millimeter wave market is always confusing. Through grassroots research, the author has an analytical idea: the current mass production application of millimeter wave radar is nothing more than the forward ACC and AEB functions, and the backward BSD and LCA functions. According to Myms Consulting, 41 million were shipped worldwide. If a car uses an average of 2-3, that is, more than 10 million cars, the global penetration rate is about 20%. Myms also said that the domestic shipment is 1 million, which is almost half a million cars, and the penetration rate is almost 3-5%.

In 2016, Mames Consulting estimated that the number of pre-installed MMwave radars in Chinese automobiles reached 1.05 million, of which 24GHz radars accounted for 63.8% and 77GHz radars accounted for 36.2%. 24GHz radar is now mainly used in blind spot detection (BSD), and the market demand is from Chinese brand cars; The 77GHz radar is primarily used for adaptive cruise control (ACC), but some companies are also using it for forward collision warning (FCW) and automatic Emergency braking (AEB). According to the China New Vehicle Evaluation Regulations (C-NCAP), Automatic Emergency Braking systems (AEBS) will be included in the scoring system in 2018, so the demand for 77GHz radar will rise. In addition, looking to the future, the smaller size and longer detection range of 77GHz radar will squeeze the market space of 24GHz radar.

This article focuses on the analysis of the domestic millimeter wave radar market, with the C-NCAP five-star evaluation, the Ministry of Communications on the operation of vehicles 1094 implementation, the domestic will enter a stage of rapid growth. It is even expected to grow exponentially in recent years. At present, the penetration rate has come to 5%, according to experience, when a product breaks through the penetration rate of 5%, it will often enter a period of rapid growth. It is expected that around 2020, if the market penetration rate can exceed 15%, the market shipments will exceed 3.75 million. Front + back, the average value of bicycles 800-1000 yuan, the market space is 3-5 billion level. If the assembly rate is increased, the market space will be larger.

Internationally, the overall AEB placement rate for new vehicles in the U.S. market in 2017 was 19%. According to NHTSA's survey, only 19 percent of vehicles listed in the United States in 2017 were equipped with AEB automatic emergency braking systems. By volume, the largest is Toyota, a Japanese carmaker. Due to overall sales

In addition, 56% of vehicles are equipped with AEB, 1.4 million vehicles in 2017 out of 2.5 million Toyota products are equipped with AEB, the total amount is much higher than other brands; In second place is General Motors, with 551,777 of the 2.8 million vehicles produced in 2017 equipped with AEB, or about 20%. In third place is Honda, which has about 30 percent of its vehicles equipped with AEB, with 492,330 of its 1.6 million vehicles equipped with AEB.

In terms of proportion, among the automakers equipped with AEB systems, it is not surprising that the top several brands with a high ratio are luxury brands. In the cars produced in 2017, the first for the electric car factory Tesla, some of the original AEB, the other part is the factory by the cloud download system opened the AEB system function, a total of 99.8% of Tesla has AEB function, including the 2017 Model S and SUV product Model X. In 2017, 96% of the cars produced by German automaker Mercedes-Benz were equipped with AEB, followed by 73% of Audi, 68% of Volvo and 58% of BMW.

NHTSA announced the proportion of AEB allocation by brand in 2017

In the domestic new models, according to the author through the car home configuration table statistics, there are also some findings, forward and rear-facing radar installation point of view, these joint venture car companies will rely more heavily on the safety function of forward braking, relatively speaking, American cars and Japanese cars go more forward. Among them, brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Lynk & Co have all equipped with millimeter wave radar as standard. Fortunately, the configuration of millimeter wave radar has been found in the middle of the B-class, the latest generation of Camry is one of the cases.

Models of each brand equipped with millimeter wave radar

Among the new models in China, according to Infineon statistics, the following models have been equipped with BSD functions.

Assembly BSD models at a glance, source: Infineon

This section, because of the large amount of data quoted, the style is very varied. In general, the author also observed that domestic Oems are generally on the millimeter wave radar project. Basically presents the idea of first-line Oems first international Tier1, establishing benchmarks, learning experience, and then seeking replacement. Second - and third-line Oems are more aggressive and directly fixed domestic suppliers.

7, cost-effective, heavy service or domestic millimeter wave radar breakthrough magic weapon

Obviously, from the perspective of competition pattern, the current competition focus of domestic radar manufacturers is not domestic peers, but the encirencirtion and suppression of international Tier1. International Tier1, master mature radar technology, but also grasp the chassis, brake, control and other key links. It seems that the barriers to competition have been unbreakable, and the market generally lacks confidence in domestic radar manufacturers.

The localization of reversing radar and vehicle has great reference significance. Before 2010, the front assembly rate of reverse radar was less than 5%, and the market was almost in Bosch and Valeo. However, with the breakthrough of domestic Audi in sensor technology, integrators such as Haun quickly started, and local enterprises often have the advantages of strong service ability, fast response speed, and cost-effective products. Start with small customers, accumulate experience, expand scale, temper quality, and gradually seize important customers to grow up. Look at now, the front loading rate of the reverse radar has increased to 70% of the maturity period, and the domestic first-line independent brands are basically cut to domestic suppliers, and Haun also cut a certain share of the public this year.

Summarizing the experience of localization of reversing radar and vehicle machinery, we believe that localization of millimeter wave radar will certainly come, cost-effective, service-oriented or domestic millimeter wave radar breakthrough magic weapon. At present, the international Tier1 has been alert, and has directly hit the price to the micro-profit model, and the development fee is not so concerned about the past. However, the international Tier 1 is mainly focused on first-line car manufacturers, and small car companies with shipments of about 200,000 units are in a vacuum. Domestic Tier1 will surround cities with rural areas, first train the team, do large-scale and complete quality improvement. At that time, domestic tier 1 will adapt to the characteristics of numerous domestic Oems, and the advantages of cost-effective and service-oriented will be fully utilized, which is expected to cut into the supply chain of first-tier car enterprises. After all, the competition is so fierce, cost reduction is always the theme of the Oems.

The author believes that domestic tier以上翻译结果来自有道神经网络翻译（YNMT）· 通用场景